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Bold Adventurers and Entertaining Storytellers will Profitably lead the way into Space

2012-02-03 02:22
This is an update to my previous article about true industries and reasons for space. Some people talk about mining helium 3. Helium 3 is valuable when you first have working commercial aneutronic nuclear fusion. Even in my more optimistic assessment that is not until the 2020s. Earth can get billions of tons of rare earth materials off the ocean bottom (recent Japan find) or can get uranium from the ocean (Japan can do it for about $150 per pound, there is 4 billion tons in the ocean). The true larger industries for space : Information and satellite servicing Tourism Entertainment Colonization Information and satellite servicing The satellite business is already a $168 billion a year business. An $8-20 billion market for improved servicing of satellites with space tugs for raising orbits, repairs, refueling seems like a reasonable estimate of a near term market. Space Tourism in More Detail Bladerunner quote - I ve seen things you people wouldn t believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I ve watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhauser Gate. Space tourists may not see what Roy Batty saw. But there are amazing real life views and experiences to be had in space. They will see things that people who have not gone to space would not be able to truly experience even if they watched an IMAX movie from the space station. Currently 7 space tourists have made 8 trips into space. Dennis Tito can brag about being first and Charles Simonyi can brag about going to orbit twice. In total, they paid $205 million for the trips (an average of $25 million per trip). There have been about 500 sub orbital flights that have been pre-sold at $200,000 per trip with $20,000 down payments. Adventure tourism by some measures is an $89 billion market (excluding airfare and gear/clothing). (15 pages) Conducted in late 2009, the final study surveyed people from representative countries within Latin America, North America and Europe, regions that account for 72.8 of all international tourism expenditures1 and 68.7 of all international departures. Based on UNWTO-reported departure figures, as well as the percentage of adventure trips reported by the respondents in the survey, statistical analysis was used to estimate that nearly 150 million adventure trips are taken every year. Hard adventure includes trekking, climbing (mountain, rock and ice) and caving. This is about 2 of the market in terms of number of trips, but hard adventure is more expensive. The next trip question on the survey suggests that hard adventuring could be increasing to 3.5 of the adventure market. Expeditions to Everest cost $70,000 to 200,000. $200,000 is needed for an attempt at the summit. About 10 to 16 of the people who go to Everest die. Mountaineering and caving have real danger and statistically can be more dangerous than what has been experienced by astronauts (about 2 fatalities). Orbital space hotels where people will be able to see the curvature of the Earth or ev...
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